College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Michigan Rises Amidst Tumult as Rivals Stumble
Sometimes, what happens off the field matters just as much—if not more—than what happens on it when it comes to determining a team's fate in the College Football Playoff. Michigan's recent surge isn’t simply about their own performance; it's about the unpredictable turmoil shaking the landscape. Sure, Michigan's victory over a struggling Wisconsin team that has yet to challenge a Power 4 opponent this year was expected, but the ripple effects are what truly counted.
Thanks to this win, the Wolverines' chances of making the Playoff jumped from 26 percent to 34 percent according to The Athletic’s Austin Mock’s model. And this is the part most people miss: a seemingly routine win can significantly alter the playoff picture when key competitors falter.
For example, Penn State, who sat at No. 6 in last week’s bracket, suffered a surprising loss to UCLA. Texas dropped a stunner to unranked Florida, causing their playoff probability to plummet from 39 percent to a mere 12 percent. Meanwhile, Iowa State lost on the road (we’ll talk about the Cyclones in a moment), and Louisville was defeated at home by Virginia, a team now gaining attention for playoff inclusion with a respectable 12 percent chance following a hot 5-1 start.
These shakeups boosted Michigan up the projections, from 18th to 13th place, firmly positioning them on the playoff bubble. They currently hover just outside the coveted bracket along with Tennessee, Missouri, and Georgia Tech, making them the fourth-ranked Big Ten contender entering Week 7.
Michigan’s resume is solid but not spectacular. Their most notable setback is a road loss on the challenging turf of Oklahoma, while their top triumph is a tough away win against Nebraska. The bigger takeaway here? In one of the most chaotic and unpredictable playoff races in recent memory, consistency in winning remains the golden rule to keep hopes alive.
Consider this: three of the top five teams from the AP preseason poll—Clemson, Texas, and Penn State—have already dropped out of the rankings. When giants fall, others inevitably benefit. Michigan’s chances continue to inch upward, though their path is daunting with significant upcoming matchups against USC and Washington. Interestingly, they won't meet another ranked opponent until their season finale against archrival Ohio State.
Michigan’s Upcoming Games and Chances
- At USC: 44% chance to win
- Washington (home): 73%
- At Michigan State: 83%
- Purdue (home): 94%
- At Northwestern: 88%
- At Maryland: 82%
- Ohio State (home): 36%
Rising Stock: Ole Miss
Which team in the SEC boasts the best odds of reaching the Playoff? Surprisingly, it’s neither Texas A&M, Georgia, nor Alabama. It’s Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels who have taken the spotlight. Undefeated at 5-0, their odds have climbed from 72 percent to 78 percent, fueled by a signature victory over LSU.
What’s driving confidence in Ole Miss? Their schedule strikes a balance. While tough road tests at Georgia and Oklahoma loom, they also have less challenging nonconference games against Washington State and The Citadel, where they are clear favorites. Plus, they’ve already dismantled Tulane, a team that could emerge as the Group of 5 representative. Ranked 37th nationally in terms of schedule difficulty, Ole Miss has a realistic path to finishing 10-2 with losses only to Georgia and Oklahoma. If they secure wins over South Carolina, Florida, and Mississippi State in the conference, the Rebels might find themselves in Atlanta, competing for their first-ever SEC title.
Falling Stock: Penn State
After Penn State’s shocking loss to UCLA, quarterback Drew Allar remained optimistic when asked if they were still playoff contenders, responding, “What do you think? Yes.” But the data paints a much harsher reality.
Following back-to-back defeats by Oregon and UCLA, Penn State’s playoff chances nosedived to a mere 8 percent. This is even lower than teams like Duke and North Texas. Only a few weeks ago, before their loss to Oregon, they enjoyed a robust 77 percent chance of making the field—a stunning plunge that underscores how unforgiving college football can be, especially after becoming the first top-10 team in four decades to lose to an 0-4 opponent.
Dishonorable Mention: Iowa State
The Cyclones were flying high at 5-0 with a 35 percent chance to break into the Playoff. However, a disappointing road loss to Cincinnati dashed that hope, dropping their odds to a slim 5 percent. Meanwhile, six other Big 12 teams—including Texas Tech, Arizona State, and Utah—now hold better prospects.
Key Bubble Watch Games This Week
No. 24 USF (4-1) at North Texas (5-0) — Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
This matchup is crucial in the American Athletic Conference, where the championship race is wide open. The conference is likely to produce the Group of 5 representative in the Playoff, and this game pits two contenders who could shift momentum dramatically.
- If USF wins: USF 11%, North Texas 5%
- If North Texas wins: North Texas 16%, USF 2%
No. 8 Alabama (4-1) at No. 14 Missouri (5-0) — Saturday, noon ET, ABC
Missouri remains undefeated without facing a ranked opponent yet, standing at a 29 percent chance for the Playoff. Alabama holds a 53 percent chance, but this could flip instantly with an upset.
- If Alabama wins: Alabama 68%, Missouri 17%
- If Missouri wins: Missouri 45%, Alabama 35%
No. 7 Indiana (5-0) at No. 3 Oregon (5-0) — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Oregon is nearly a lock at 94 percent, but Indiana’s 51 percent chance could skyrocket with a win—a game-changing opportunity since their schedule lacks further ranked opponents.
- If Indiana wins: Indiana 77%, Oregon 85%
- If Oregon wins: Oregon 97%, Indiana 43%
No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) vs. Texas (3-2) in Dallas — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Despite their undefeated record and wins against Michigan and Auburn, Oklahoma’s chances are only 40 percent due to a tough schedule and skepticism surrounding their team’s consistency. Texas, at 12 percent, can revive its hopes with a victory.
- If Oklahoma wins: Oklahoma 60%, Texas 3%
- If Texas wins: Texas 17%, Oklahoma 31%
No. 15 Michigan (4-1) at USC (4-1) — Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Michigan sits just outside the playoff bubble. A road win against USC would significantly boost their odds, while USC, currently at 14 percent, could enhance their case by upsetting the Wolverines.
- If Michigan wins: Michigan 53%, USC 4%
- If USC wins: USC 23%, Michigan 18%
No. 21 Arizona State at Utah — Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Big 12 is looking to send a second team to the Playoff after Texas Tech. Arizona State and Utah, the league’s best bets outside Texas Tech, both hover in the teens percentage-wise. This game offers a chance to strengthen their resumes for an at-large bid.
- If Arizona State wins: Arizona State 27%, Utah 4%
- If Utah wins: Utah 19%, Arizona State 11%
Here’s the bold question: With so much volatility and teams like Michigan climbing just by seizing opportunities and their rivals stumbling, is the College Football Playoff system rewarding resilience, or is it too dependent on chaotic results beyond team control? What do you think—should consistency or strength of schedule be weighed more heavily? Share your thoughts below; the debate is just heating up!
